UN chief could win South Korean presidency, but contest would be bruising
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is the odds-on favourite to be the next president of South Korea — if he wants the job — thanks to high name recognition, a clean reputation and what is seen to be a lacklustre field of rivals.
Key points:
- Ban Ki-moon is the only potential candidate polling above 20 per cent
- However some critics say he has been away from the country too long
- The UN chief says he is conscious of "expectations" that he will run
But vying for the December 2017 election would cast him into a political arena far more bruising than the genteel give-and-take of global diplomacy to which he is accustomed, exposing his family, finances and career to intense scrutiny.
Mr Ban is coy about his plans, and said he would decide on his future when he returned to South Korea in January after his UN tenure finished.
But in his clearest statement yet on his intentions, he said he was conscious of "expectations from many people in Korea that I should make myself available for a better future of Korea".
With the pride Koreans take in him as "president of the world" and absence thus far of strong competition, opinion polls show Mr Ban as the front-runner for the election next year.
However, his lack of a political base, a decade-long absence from South Korea to lead the United Nations, and his age — he is 72 — are potential liabilities.
Kim Chong-in, former leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, said Mr Ban may not be able to run a rigorous campaign after having been away for so long.
"In this day and age when the world changes so quickly and people's way of thinking changes dramatically, is it going to be easy for him to even grasp the reality here?" Mr Kim said.
Some UN diplomats say the gentlemanly Mr Ban has been a weak leader.
"He hasn't had the ability to really drive international opinion on any of these big issues," said a senior UN diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"He's tried to do the job as sort of best friends of every member state."
Mr Ban rejects the characterisation that he is not a strong leader, arguing that he has stood up against injustice and violations of human rights and spoken up more strongly than other world leaders.
He said there was a misperception that a charismatic style was needed for effective leadership, and that there were "serious misunderstandings" about his leadership style.
UN leader polling higher than other potential candidates
Mr Ban, a career diplomat who served as South Korea's foreign minister from 2004 to 2006, has never held elected office.
He is expected to join the conservative Saenuri Party of President Park Geun-hye if he runs for president.
A complicating factor emerged on Monday when Ms Park proposed amending the constitution to scrap the five-year single-term presidency in favour of two four-year terms, which would make Mr Ban a less attractive candidate given his age.
Mr Ban is the only potential candidate consistently polling above 20 percent.
Opposition leader Moon Jae-in, who would be his main opponent, has an 18 percent popularity rating in polls, but he has been at the centre of a controversy over revelations that he supported abstaining from a UN vote on North Korean human rights.
Mr Ban's story of bootstrapping success is the subject of near-myth in Korea.
Born in a farming village in Eumseong County in the central part of the country, he was the eldest of six children and grew up poor but became enamoured of the English language and dreamed of becoming a diplomat.
According to polling firm Gallup, his support base is expected primarily to be voters 40 and older, the same powerful bloc that was core to Ms Park's election as president in 2012.
Reuters