When Orioles general manager Mike Elias explained his decision to start Jackson Holliday in the minor leagues, he cited the organization’s “track record” of managing the jump from Triple-A to the majors for its top prospects.
He referenced the success Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, also consensus No. 1 prospects like Holliday, have experienced since their big league call-ups in 2022.
“I believe our capabilities are sound in this area,” Elias said.
The path for Holliday, who was optioned to Triple-A on Friday after a rocky start to his big league career, will be different than Henderson and Rutschman. But that doesn’t mean the Orioles’ “track record” still can’t apply to Holliday.
After the three No. 1 prospects, the next-best minor leaguers to be promoted during the Elias era were Grayson Rodriguez and Colton Cowser, who both hit speed bumps during their first stints in the show last year and were demoted to Triple-A.
Rodriguez and Cowser are better for it, and they believe Holliday will be, too.
“We have a very tight-knit clubhouse. We’re not just teammates; we’re brothers,” Rodriguez said. “Everybody being with me through that process was pretty special, and the same thing is going to be there for him.”
During Holliday’s two weeks in the majors, Cowser, 24, was impressed by the youngster’s poise and maturity. More than Holliday’s talent and tools, the way he carried himself amid his slumping start was proof to Cowser that his teammate “will be fine.”
“I’m not worried about Jackson,” Cowser said. “Guy is 20 years old. When I was 20 — actually, I just watched my swing when I was 20 in college, and it’s not anything compared to what he’s at right now. And that’s not talking about the composure and maturity that he has.”
Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also expressed their confidence in Holliday on Friday, stating their belief in him becoming an impact major leaguer is perhaps even greater now than it was before the club promoted him. The history of Orioles prospects overcoming an early setback only to realize their potential when they rejoined the team is a reason why.
Elias named Rodriguez and Cowser during his 20-minute news conference Friday, the majority of which was dedicated to explaining his decision to demote Holliday, who led off for Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday. The club’s top executive was candid about how “unpredictable” this sport is, especially as it pertains to prospect promotions.
“It was hard for me to know exactly where he was based on the evidence that I was working with. Do I like the way that this has gone in April totally? No, and I feel responsible for that,” Elias said. “But it’s possible, just like it was for Grayson or Colton Cowser and any of these guys, that this was sort of a necessary development episode to be exposed to this before you’re fully ready for it. And now, the work that you put in, you kind of know exactly what you need to do when you get back up there and that’s valuable.
“It comes at a cost to get that negative feedback, but it’s valuable and I guarantee Jackson’s going to channel that well.”
Hyde said he wants Holliday to get consistent playing time in Triple-A so he can implement the adjustments the Orioles’ hitting department has for him. Hyde is never surprised when a young player struggles, as the sixth-year skipper believes the game is more challenging now than ever with the combination of social media, analytics and 100 mph fastballs.
“This game is so hard already,” Hyde said. “I think pitching is incredibly hard to hit, harder than ever before, and I think that the world we live in right now and what the microscope these guys are under, I think it makes it way more difficult.
“It’s a tough game to play with the attention that you’re getting.”
Better than perhaps anyone in the Orioles’ clubhouse, Rodriguez knows what Holliday is feeling.
Rodriguez, the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball entering 2023, also breezed through the minors, although not at the breakneck pace Holliday did. The right-hander was a strong candidate to make Baltimore’s opening day roster last spring but narrowly missed out. He was also quickly promoted and struggled through 10 starts with a 7.35 ERA. He needed a reset in Triple-A, and when he returned in July, he was one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. Rodriguez, 24, has a 3.09 ERA in 18 starts since he was recalled.
His advice to Holliday would be that “it’s more normal than you’d think.”
“If you look around the league, a lot of the big-name guys, they struggle when they first come up to the big leagues,” Rodriguez said. “It’s a completely different atmosphere to get used to. The game is a little bit faster, the stadiums are bigger, the lights are brighter, and the TV impact. You feel like you’re under a microscope.”
Cowser was one of the best outfield prospects in baseball when he was promoted in July. But big league pitchers chewed him up — especially with breaking balls — as the 2021 first-round pick hit .115 in his first 26 games and was optioned. That failure led to a swing change and mindset shift that has spurred his breakout this season.
Cowser hasn’t reached out to Holliday yet, instead saying he’ll text him once the dust settles with any words of encouragement.
“It’s not like I’m an expert yet, either. It’s only been a month,” said Cowser, who sports a 1.054 OPS, when asked what advice he’d give Holliday. “Just go down there and remember just how it feels. In my first game back there, it felt completely different. It felt like a weight was lifted off my shoulders. I wasn’t putting as much pressure on myself. Just embracing that feeling and understanding it, first, and the next time you get up here is to try to emulate that.”
Cowser and Rodriguez aren’t the only ones in the Orioles’ clubhouse to hit a similar roadblock.
Cedric Mullins hit .094 to begin the 2019 season and struggled so much that year he was sent down to Double-A. Starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish were both met with challenges early in their careers — the former was sent to the minors in 2021, and the latter received a reset in the form of an injured list stint in 2022. Corbin Burnes broke out as a reliever with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018, but he stumbled out of the gate in 2019 and was optioned — a setback that spurred his recent run as one of the sport’s best pitchers.
This also isn’t unique to recent Orioles prospects. Many of the greatest players in MLB history have scuffled early in their careers. Willie Mays opened 1-for-26. Cal Ripken Jr. was 3-for-33 after his promotion. Mike Trout hit .163 in his first 14 games and was optioned to Triple-A after he debuted at 19 years old.
During Rodriguez’s stint in Triple-A last year, he continued to make adjustments to his delivery after the team believed he was tipping his pitches. Just as important, the fireballer returned to what made him one of baseball’s best pitching prospects: throwing heaters for strikes.
“The biggest challenge coming to the big leagues is learning to relax and just trust your abilities to play. It’s really hard to do it,” Rodriguez said. “That’s what happened to me last year, coming up struggling the first time I was here, searching for answers. Being able to go back down the minor leagues, I was able to relax, figure it out and come back up and be a completely different player. It helps a lot.”
Henderson might not know what it feels like to be optioned, but he does know what it’s like to wonder if he would be. Before he broke out and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, he slumped last April, hitting .170 in his first 100 at-bats. He tried not to allow thoughts of a potential demotion to creep into his mind, but it was “hard not to think about it.” But Henderson broke out of his slump in May, and once he stopped overthinking at the plate, he hasn’t looked back.
Like his teammates, Henderson has no doubts that Holliday will do the same when he’s back in Baltimore.
“It’s definitely tough whenever you first get up here,” Henderson said. “He’s a great kid. He’s got a good head on his shoulders. It’s only a matter of time. It’s unfortunate with the timing of things, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets back up here and really shows what he can do.”
